Business and/or politics in Europe; [News items];

              76 H A S K I N S & SELLS October
Business and/or Politics in Europe
BY M . P. SWAN
(For several years until recently on the staff of the Paris Office)
THE writer has been asked by the edi­tor
of the Bulletin to contribute some­thing
regarding the general political and
business situation in Europe at present, the
progress being made by American capital,
and the opportunity for development of
American business there.
The first thought which occurs to any­body
attempting to write on the above
subjects is that so much useless as well as
useful material has been already con­tributed
along these lines by various
persons of varying degrees of competence,
experience, judgment, and rashness, that
it requires a certain amount of courage
to try once more the patience and for­bearance
of readers by inflicting one's
views or opinions on them. How many
times have we all read of this or that
economist, banker, or big business man
making a tour of Europe, studying con­ditions
there, and after a sojourn for a few
brief weeks, finding a ready-made cure for
all its ills, social, economic, and political?
But in all the host of would-be helpers of
Europe how many false prophets have
arisen and since been forgotten? We all
know that the best brains of Europe, and
for that matter of the whole world, have
been working unceasingly and untiringly
during the past six years on the many
problems left in the wake of the great war,
and that if these problems had not been
inherently difficult and almost unsuscep­tible
of solution, they would long since
have solved them.
If we have learned anything at all from
the lessons of the past few years, it is not
to be rashly optimistic, nor too despondent,
but rather to preserve confidence and look
to conservatism as our guide.
Politics and business are so closely and
inextricably associated in Europe, and the
reactions of the former so noticeable on
the latter that any attempt to discuss
business conditions without briefly sur­veying
the political causes underlying
them would be unsatisfactory.
This statement would seem at first
sight perhaps an exaggeration, but a
single instance will suffice to emphasize
its accuracy and importance. A certain
importer, we will say, whose business is
located in France, may have ceased, or at
least largely curtailed his purchases in the
United States, and the question arises,
"Why?" The answer, in a large propor­tion
of the cases, is that the dollar exchange
rate is so unfavorable that he simply
cannot afford to purchase in America,
and must either turn his attention to
countries with whom the franc is in better
standing, or otherwise go out of business.
If we pursue the question a little further
and want to know why the exchange rates
are unfavorable, after some thought and
having made due allowance for other
influences, such as trade balances, finan­cial
policy, paper circulation, etc., which
might reasonably be expected to influence
the exchange rates, we are forced to the
conclusion that in a very large measure,
political events have shaped the exchange
movement, with a corresponding reaction
on business.
In November, 1918, with the conclu­sion
of the armistice and the subsequent
signing of peace in June, 1919, the whole
world heaved an immense sigh of relief,
and concluded that the reign of brotherly
love and good-will among men had com­menced.
Those alive today know how
much bitterness and disappointment those
unfulfilled hopes have caused.
The attempts to put into operation and
enforce the treaty provisions have held
up before our eyes, on the one hand a
Germany unable, or unwilling, or both,
to meet her obligations loyally, and on the
other hand that of the Allied Govern­ments,
whose soldiers had fought together
a common foe, at odds with one another